Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 0.118497 0.131972 0.145927 0.161426 0.178126 0.195545 0.215055
2024-10-06 0.100357 0.120664 0.142864 0.168789 0.198084 0.230015 0.267299
2024-10-13 0.085528 0.110172 0.138432 0.172881 0.213378 0.259113 0.314294
2024-10-20 0.073843 0.101294 0.134151 0.175733 0.226284 0.285080 0.357936
2024-10-27 0.064536 0.093838 0.130309 0.178027 0.237757 0.308997 0.399265
2024-11-03 0.061614 0.093885 0.135317 0.190945 0.262142 0.348674 0.460144
2024-11-10 0.054453 0.087405 0.131173 0.191594 0.270767 0.368901 0.497488
2024-11-17 0.049280 0.082999 0.129198 0.194581 0.282050 0.392334 0.538969
2024-11-24 0.044104 0.077979 0.125849 0.195268 0.290011 0.411425 0.575097
2024-12-01 0.042692 0.078323 0.129862 0.205962 0.311352 0.448006 0.634056
2024-12-08 0.041330 0.078553 0.133596 0.216253 0.332283 0.484367 0.693298
2024-12-15 0.037644 0.074729 0.131059 0.217378 0.340511 0.503968 0.730899
2024-12-22 0.033054 0.069190 0.125882 0.214864 0.344198 0.518428 0.763255
2024-12-29 0.031808 0.069185 0.129192 0.224978 0.366028 0.557968 0.829916
2025-01-05 0.029625 0.067322 0.129442 0.230482 0.381422 0.589106 0.886011
2025-01-12 0.027286 0.064910 0.128603 0.234202 0.394249 0.616909 0.938066
2025-01-19 0.025030 0.062383 0.127351 0.237124 0.405871 0.643163 0.988377
2025-01-26 0.025297 0.064716 0.134315 0.253138 0.437211 0.697557 1.078061
2025-02-02 0.022956 0.061635 0.131832 0.253954 0.445775 0.719901 1.123845
2025-02-09 0.021292 0.059723 0.131207 0.257647 0.458664 0.748517 1.178664
2025-02-16 0.019365 0.057014 0.128953 0.258497 0.467125 0.770825 1.224893
2025-02-23 0.019299 0.058344 0.134044 0.271673 0.494845 0.821351 1.311433
2025-03-02 0.019153 0.059466 0.138768 0.284319 0.521938 0.871297 1.397698